business
Opinion
Market Analysis: Hermes, Heineken, Barclays, Kering, London Stock Exchang, Lloyds, NatWest
Hermès: Steady growth and insulated from fashion swings; potential growth opportunities in other categories such as shoes, homewares, and beauty. Heineken: Beer market in decline, shift from on-trade to off-trade;rising retailer power in Europe hitting margins, Barclays: Confident outlook; Investment Bank growth strong; AI offersopportunities to enhance products and cross-selling. Kering: Turnaround Takes Time Despite Positive Sentiment; CEOAppointment and New Designer Signal Direction of Recovery. London Stock Exchange: IPO Weakness Offset by Recent Listings;Benefits from Microsoft Partnership Slower than Anticipated. Lloyds: Net income beats, but NII hit by new motor finance provision;Schroders acquisition positive for other income. NatWest: NII outperforms on stronger customer relationships; Returnto full privatisation offers greater strategic autonomy.
![Market Analysis text across a b&w screen of economic data]()
Market Analysis text across a b&w screen of economic data
In the luxury space, Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Hermès, informed by insights from industry experts:
Hermès is expected to maintain steady growth of around 10% annually over the next few years. Even as the quiet luxury trend reaches the midpoint of what Third Bridge experts view as a five-year cycle, Hermès remains largely insulated from fashion swings. Its timeless aesthetic, disciplined supply, and deeply ingrained brand story mean it continues to set the benchmark for sustainable luxury growth.
Third Bridge experts point to its ability to grow beyond its iconic Kelly and Birkin bags, with momentum now coming from categories such as shoes, homewares and beauty. By offering everything from a fifty-euro lipstick to high-end jewellery, Hermès has built an ecosystem that allows almost anyone to buy into the brand without sacrificing its exclusivity.
Third Bridge experts say craftsmanship, heritage and disciplined pricing remain the pillars of Hermès’s enduring appeal. Over the past five years, the house has implemented only modest price increases compared with its peers, helping to reinforce customer trust and strengthen its competitive moat.
Our experts also note that Hermès has expanded its store network with restraint. Unlike peers that overextended during the post-pandemic boom, Hermès has grown carefully, opening boutiques in strategic locations while maintaining consistent standards of service and presentation. Its refusal to enter the wholesale or resale markets underlines its commitment to scarcity and full-price integrity.
In the brewing space, Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding
Heineken:. Third Bridge experts say the beer market in Europe is facing a structural decline, with younger consumers turning toward low and no alcohol alternatives driven by rising health consciousness. They believe the brewer should look beyond beer altogether, expanding into nonalcoholic beverages or adjacent drink categories.
Retailers’ growing power in Europe is putting pressure on brewers’ margins. The rise of pan European procurement alliances means retailers are negotiating at a continental level, often pushing prices toward the lowest common denominator.
Another major trend is the gradual shift from on trade to off trade consumption. Consumers are drinking less outside the home and increasingly purchasing beer and beverages from supermarkets and discount retailers. Heineken appears particularly exposed because of its heavier reliance on the on trade channel, where margins are higher but volumes are under pressure.
Through its Sequoia programme, the company is now attempting to streamline its European footprint by centralising supply chains, harmonising packaging and reducing the number of product variations. Third Bridge experts say this could finally help Heineken close the profitability gap with its competitors by improving asset utilisation and operational efficiency.
Max Harper, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Barclays:
Barclays has delivered a solid set of results, with the raised ROTE guidance and move to quarterly buy-backs signalling a confident outlook.
Our experts have highlighted that the Investment Bank as its largest division. Its growth prospects are strong as recent hires work to deepen client relationships.
Going forward, eyes should be on their digital strategy and if they can benefit from their strategic focus on technology and AI, which could generate significant opportunities to enhance products, leverage data, and improve cross-selling across the group.
In the luxury market, Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Kering. Third Bridge experts say it will take more time to achieve a true turnaround, despite early indicators being encouraging. Gucci’s recent show “The Tiger” has sparked renewed interest online and in the press, marking the first wave of positive sentiment around the brand in two years. Still, the true test will come in the fourth quarter, traditionally the most important sales period for fashion houses, when the brand must convert heightened visibility into measurable growth.
Third Bridge experts say the appointment of Luca de Meo as Kering’s CEO is viewed as a clear signal of change in corporate culture. Coming from an automotive background, de Meo brings a mindset rooted in operational efficiency, process rigour, and cost control, qualities the group has historically lacked.
At Gucci, the partnership between Francesca Bellettini and Demna Gvasalia represents a balance between bold creativity and commercial discipline. Demna’s appointment signals a return to Gucci’s tradition as a designer-led brand. His cultural edge and appeal to younger audiences bring renewed relevance, while Bellettini’s proven executional strength ensures sell-through, tighter inventory control, and disciplined rollout. This creative-commercial duality could prove crucial in turning social buzz into sales, particularly as Gucci seeks to reconnect with aspirational customers rather than relying solely on its very important clients.
Store closures, staff reductions and cost optimisation efforts are early signs of a more grounded approach after years of overexpansion.
Also in the financial space, Max Harper, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding LSE. LSEG a small revenue issue with weaker ASV growth vs H1 despite completion of the sunset of Eikon. Management communication around this should be the thing to watch as they have refined their revenue growth guidance.
LSEG’s share price has also been impacted by weakness in the listings side of the business, which accounts for a relatively small segment of revenue, but has captured significant cognitive footprint. This negative sentiment should start to subside as IPOs return, with the Beauty Tech Group listing already completed. Success with the upcoming listings of Princes Group and Shawbrook Bank, and potentially CFC Underwriting and Visma, would go a long way toward reassuring the market.
Our experts suggest that the slower-than-anticipated pace of benefits from the Microsoft partnership is due to the foundational work required, such as moving datasets to the cloud, which ensures they can best leverage Microsoft’s tools. They highlighted that the partnership is, in reality, on track, but LSEG needs to offset market negativity by demonstrating new tools as they come to market.
Despite much of the debate around the share price being dominated by the perceived threat of AI, our experts believe it’s more of an enabler than a threat. New functions delivered via the Microsoft partnership should place LSEG at the forefront, with the potential for different models of data consumption away from traditional desktops.
PISCES should further support the markets business, though the short-term impact is likely to be muted. It should become a key driver by 2027/28, while the digital markets infrastructure will take more time to develop.
Our experts believe that breaking up the group is unlikely in the short term due to key upcoming milestones, but this decision could be revisited in around five years, once milestones are hit.
Concluding the financial space, Max Harper comments on Lloyds Banking Group:
What could’ve was a decent set of results with a net income beat, driven by other income with NII below exceptions, has been heavily hit by new a motor provision sending profits down 36%. New GBP 800m provision brings total provisioning to GBP 1.95bn which should cover Lloyds for an outcome on the negative end of the spectrum.
On a positive note, the upgraded NII guidance to £13.6 billion from £13.5 billion is welcome, with their hedge continuing to perform well.
Furthermore, acquiring the remainder of the Schroders Personal Wealth venture should be positive from an 'other income' perspective and allow Lloyds to capture revenue previously left on the table. However, our experts have highlighted concerns that Lloyds has a less affluent customer base than other banks, suggesting a need to acquire new, wealthier
customers.
and NatWest:
NatWest’s Q3 results paint a picture of a bank firing on all cylinders, with total income of £4.332 billion, representing a 5.7% beat versus consensus. Another rise in income guidance to £16.3 billion, from over £16 billion, is very positive and should signal confidence in their strategy to the market.
Net Interest Income (NII) outperformed by 5.6% to £3.268 billion, supported by a 9 basis point expansion in Net Interest Margin (NIM) to 2.37%. Our experts believe this is down to NatWest’s core competitive advantage, which is its ability to build relationships. Compared with other UK banks, their customers are more sticky, with fewer rate chasers, resulting in a resilient customer base. This is driving less product switching and should preserve NII and NIM, alongside hedging. Other income should also benefit from these relationships through the ability to cross-sell. Our experts believe this is a strategic focus going forward, as NatWest seeks to diversify its income base.
A 1.5% increase in ROTE guidance to over 18% will be welcomed by shareholders and signals strong risk management and capital generation, resulting in higher profits.
A key point to watch is how NatWest’s strategy may evolve following its return to full privatisation, expected by May 2025. Our experts believe this will allow NatWest to explore options that weren't previously possible, such as acquisitions, and give the bank greater autonomy over its strategy. A fully institutional shareholder base should also drive more competitive targets as investors demand more.
Third Bridge is a global primary research firm that interviews more than 6,000 internationally recognised industry experts and business leaders a year to compile 360-degree market intelligence for institutional investors. www.thirdbridge.com