business

Manufacturing Output Volumes Fall Sharply In Three Months To November

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay

Manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, and at the fastest pace since August 2020 – according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS). Manufacturers expect volumes to decline at a similar pace in the three months to February.

The volume of total order books was stable at a historically weak level in November. Export order books improved relative to last month but remained well below average. Stock adequacy for finished goods rose, to stand above the long-run average.

Expectations for selling price inflation eased in November, standing in line with the long-run average.

The survey, based on the responses of 334 manufacturers, found:
Output volumes fell at an accelerated pace in the three months to November (weighted balance of -30%, from -16% in the quarter to October), which saw the sharpest decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to fall at a similar pace in the three months to February (-30%).

Output decreased in 13 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to November, with the fall being driven by the food, drink & tobacco, chemicals, and mechanical engineering sub-sectors.

Total order books were reported as below “normal” in November (-37%, from -38% in October). The level of order books remained significantly below the long-run average (-14%).

Export order books were also reported as below “normal”, though to a lesser extent than in October (-31%, from -46% in October). The balance was also below the long-run average (-19%).

Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November (+7%, from +16% in October), to stand in line with the long-run average.

Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November (+16%, from +7% in October), with the balance standing marginally above the long-run average (+12%).

Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year. What’s striking in this month’s survey is how consistently firms link the slowdown to uncertainty ahead of the Budget, with customers delaying purchases and investment until they know what’s coming.

With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies. For manufacturers, this must include accelerated support to address punitive energy costs and increased Growth and Skills Levy flexibility – interventions that would boost competitivness, increase confidence, and unlock growth.

Ben Jones, CBI Lead Economist