Troubling Reading For The Conservative Party

The 2022 May local election results make troubling reading for the Conservative Party, but were also a mixed bag for their Labour opponents. With victories in Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster Labour exceeded expectations in London, but are still in recovery mode elsewhere in the country, particularly in the Tees Valley and the North East.

Consequently, the 2022 election results allow an early assessment as to whether the Conservative assault on the Red Wall in the North East at the December 2019 general election was a one-off phenomena, or the start of a more fundamental realignment in the region. Although Labour have not made substantial gains in the North East, fears of a Tory ‘Blue Wall’ being built in the region have proven unfounded, despite the both the Tees Valley and the North East being at the very centre of the Conservative’s ‘levelling up’ plans since 2019.

Despite the Conservative’s efforts in the region since 2019, in the run up to the 2022 elections the national party has lurched from crisis to crisis, greatly damaging its prospects. Second job scandals, renovation queries and non-dom tax affairs, through to ‘partygate’ and cost of living issues have had a profound impact on the Tory’s polling numbers. Nationally, Labour have established a steady 4-6 per cent lead over the Conservatives in the two months prior to the 2022 local elections.

In April 2022, Electoral Calculus forecast a loss of 548 councillors for the Conservative Party, and 819 Labour gains, a prediction which seems overly optimistic for Labour as the results begin to emerge. Yet, on the eve of poll, YouGov predicted that Labour would make gains across the country but at a slower pace in the North than elsewhere. These latter predictions appear to have been borne out, with Labour beginning to patch up holes in the Red Wall, but with the Tories still looming large in the background, particularly in Hartlepool and Sunderland.

The Tees Valley 2019-21

The first brick to fall in the Red Wall was in the Tees Valley. Long before the December 2019 general election results, the Conservatives were making waves in the region. Before 2017, the Red Wall in the Tees Valley was strongly built and heavily defended. Prior to this period, the region’s five local authorities were each led by Labour politicians, whilst six of the area’s seven MPs represented Labour.

However, in May 2017, the Conservative politician Ben Houchen, upset long odds to become the first Mayor of the Tees Valley. Houchen claimed he had delivered a ‘political earthquake.’ His prophecy would come true in 2019.

At the May 2019 local elections in the region Labour lost control of four of the five Tees Valley councils. Although Independents ultimately emerged as the Leaders of Middlesbrough, Redcar and Hartlepool Council, the Conservatives emerged as the lead partner of a Coalition administration in Darlington. Furthermore, during the 2019 general election the Conservatives made inroads into parliamentary seats within the Tees Valley which had previously been staunchly Labour. Redcar returned its first ever Conservative MP, whilst Darlington went blue for the first time since 1983.

The Conservatives continued their advance into the region by winning the 2021 Hartlepool by-election and securing the re-election of Ben Houchen, as the Mayor of the Tees Valley Combined Authority in the same year. These results seemed to suggest that there had been a fundamental realignment within the Tees Valley.

The Tees Valley 2022

Four out of the five Tees Valley local authorities hold ‘all out’ elections every four years, with the last contests taking place in 2019 and these councillors not up for re-election until 2023. Only Hartlepool Council went to the polls in May 2022, with one third of their seats up for election.

Labour went into the 2022 local elections in Hartlepool hoping to return to prominence in the town, having fell to defeat at the 2021 Hartlepool by-election, alongside losing control of the council in 2019. However, in 2022, the status quo in Hartlepool largely remained. The Conservatives improved on their position as the largest party and look likely to remain in coalition with a group of Independents.

At the elections, Labour won seven seats leaving their position on the authority unchanged with 11 councillors in total. Labour were defending seven of the 13 seats up for grabs and emerged with seven councillors. In contrast, the Conservatives improved their position, gaining two seats at the expense of Independents, to give total of 15 councillors. Local Conservatives were elated with the results, whilst Labour welcomed stability after years of going backwards.

Although the 2022 results seemed to arrest Labour’s decline in the town since 2019, Labour did not return to power. Labour had previously ruled Hartlepool Council from 2010 to 2019. Indeed, as recently as the 2018 elections the party held total of 19 seats in the town.

Yet, a major positive for the Labour Party has been the recovery of their vote share. In 2019 and 2021, Labour gained only 37.7 and 28.7 per cent of the vote, respectively. In contrast, in 2022, Labour’s share hit 46.2 per cent. However, despite this increase, Labour were unable to make substantial inroads into areas which have turned Conservative since 2019.

The North East 2019-21

Similar to the Tees Valley, bricks of the Red Wall in the North East began to crumble in 2019. Bishop Auckland and Blythe Valley, went blue for the first time in their history, whilst Tony Blair’s former seat in Sedgefield elected its first Conservative MP since 1931.

At the 2021 local elections the Conservatives gained six Councillors in Sunderland, with Labour losing nine seats. In Durham, a Coalition featuring the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats deprived Labour of power in the area for the first time since 1919. The Conservatives also took majority control of Northumberland Council. However, the Tories failed to make substantial inroads in elections in Gateshead, Newcastle, North Tyneside, or South Tyneside, all of which stayed under Labour control.

The North East 2022

Five of the seven North East councils held elections in 2022. Similar to the position in the Tees Valley, Labour failed to make substantial gains within the North East in 2022. However, in many of the areas up for election, Labour was defending already strong positions. As such, Labour have been able to hold on in most authorities, but have lost small numbers of seats throughout the region.

At the 2022 elections, Labour retained control of Gateshead, Newcastle, North Tyneside, South Tyneside and Sunderland councils, but below the surface the party’s fortunes were mixed.

Labour held on to their dominant position in Newcastle, losing only one seat to the Lib Dems. Labour also maintained control in South Tyneside, but lost four seats in total to the Green Party and Independent candidates. However, in both of these areas the Conservatives failed to advance. The Tories have not won a seat on Newcastle Council for over 30 years, in nearby Gateshead the Conservatives won no seats, whilst in South Tyneside the party lost two seats to the Greens and now hold only one seat at on the authority.

In North Tyneside, Labour and the Conservatives traded blows but with the overall result much the same. Labour control 51 of the authority’s 60 seats, with the Conservatives holding the other nine. In a major coup for Labour, the party unseated the Conservative group leader on the council, but also lost one of their own cabinet members to a Tory challenger.

In Sunderland, both sides claimed victory from a mixed bag of results. Labour held onto power, despite predictions that the Conservatives would build on their 2021 result in the City. However, overall Labour lost one seat to the Lib Dems, but remain in control holding 41 of the authority’s 75 councillors, with the Conservatives behind on 18 members.

The picture in Sunderland is similar to Hartlepool. On the surface Labour have stopped the rot, despite predictions to the contrary, but below the surface the party is not making substantial progress, rather just recovering lost ground. Labour’s vote share in Sunderland was 44.6 per cent in 2022, a marked increase on the 39.2 per cent and 32.8 per cent secured in 2021 and 2019, respectively. However, the last time the same seats were contested in 2018, Labour received 47 per cent of the vote in the city, emerging with 61 councillors in total.

Conclusion

At a national level Labour will be quietly pleased with their 2022 local performances. Huge victories in London and Tory losses throughout the country provide some light at the end of a long tunnel through which the party have emerged since 2019. However, below the surface, Labour’s 2022 results, particularly in the North East, have simply arrested decline, rather than providing the impetus for a forward march that is needed in the Red Wall areas which fell to the Tories that were not contested at the 2022 local elections. Overall, Labour held firm across most of the North East, but will be slightly discouraged by performances in Hartlepool and Sunderland. Optimistically, Labour have stopped the rot after dismal performances in 2019 and 2021, pessimistically the party is not quite making up the ground it occupied in 2018.

Thanks to Dr. Christopher Massey of School of Social Sciences, Humanities & Law, Teeside University for this analysis.