NFL Week 13 - Thanksgiving Preview

“Football season starts after Thanksgiving” is the classic cliché attributed to the likes of Bill Belichick and his former boss, Hall of Fame coach, Bill Parcells.
While the previous 12 weeks of NFL action aren’t meaningless, there is some substance behind this cliché. By this stage of the season, we have an informed view of which teams are Super Bowl contenders, and which teams will likely not even make the playoffs. This run into the playoffs is where the serious teams start to show their championship credentials. Divisional champions, seeds and wild card teams will become clearer as we enter the business end of the season.

The NFL and college football are a central piece of the traditional American Thanksgiving experience, with NFL fixtures being played on Thanksgiving since 1934, when the Detroit Lions hosted the Chicago Bears. The Dallas Cowboys have held regular Thanksgiving games since 1966. Both teams have home games on Thanksgiving Day, usually against a Divisional rival.

Over the three games now taking place on Thanksgiving, the broadcast figures regularly top 30m viewers as the NFL corners the holiday season TV market in the US.
Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)

For most of the modern era, the Detroit Lions have been a poor-performing team. Not anymore. The Lions have been a juggernaut this season and are rightly considered to be the favourites for a Super Bowl berth from the NFC. Under the leadership of the infectious personality of Head Coach, Dan Campbell, and the smart team building of General Manager, Brad Holmes, Detroit has constructed a Championship calibre roster.

They are a team with a handful of stars including Amon-Ra St Brown (Wide Receiver), Penei Sewell (Right Tackle) and Aidan Hutchison (Defensive End), but their strength comes from having solid players in all positions. Last season’s Achilles heel was the Lions’ defence, but this has been addressed this year through draft picks like Terrion Arnold (Corner Back), free agency (out of contract players), and a late season trade for Za’Darius Smith (Defensive End), to cover for the aforementioned Hutchison, who is likely out for the rest of the season. Coupled with a potent offence led by reborn former first round draft pick Jared Goff and a dynamic backfield, the Lions have been in relentless form this season.

The Chicago Bears are one of the NFL’s storied franchises, but in recent times they have been in the doldrums. The introduction of number one draft pick, rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, has given a glimpse of the potential of what the Bears could be in the near future. However, in the here and now, behind a porous offensive line, Williams has been running for his life and making bad decisions for a number of weeks.

The Bears’ remaining schedule features some NFL heavyweights, and it appears that the number one priority for the team is to avoid permanently damaging Williams, both physically and mentally, before resetting for next year. This reset could be without Head Coach, Matt Eberflus, who is predicted to lose his position, having failed to create the environment for Williams to thrive. His defence has been excellent, but there is only so much they can do when the offence has been so woeful.

However, a change at offensive coordinator, with the departure of Shane Waldron and promotion of Thomas Brown has offered some improvement in the past two weeks.
I expect the Lions to run out comfortable winners against their NFC North rivals, continuing their push for the number one seed in the NFC.

New York Giants (2-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

The Dallas Cowboys began playing on Thanksgiving in 1966 as part of a drive to increase the team’s national publicity. It certainly worked; “America’s Team” are the NFL’s most successful franchise from a business perspective. Success on the field has been limited though, as the Cowboys haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1996, which was also their last visit to the big game.

This match-up against bitter NFC East rivals, New York Giants, could well be the game to choose to sleep off the turkey dinner.
The Cowboys are now without veteran quarterback Dak Prescott, after a hamstring tendon tear, but even when Prescott was calling the shots, the Cowboys have been disappointing. The Giants have had an equally poor year and the decision to reward their QB, Daniel Jones, with a new contract in 2023 ($82m guaranteed) has not been matched with top tier play. So much so that last week Jones was benched, and subsequently released, in a transparent move to avoid potentially having to pay Jones costly injury guarantees ($23m) built into his contract.

There will still be stars on show at the AT&T Stadium with the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons for the Cowboys, and Malik Nabers and Dexter Lawrence for the Giants, all in action. Both teams seem destined to be ‘rewarded’ for their disappointing seasons with high draft positions next year. There is likely to be changes in the coaching staff for the Cowboys, as owner Jerry Jones searches for the right man to take Dallas back to the promised land of the Super Bowl.

I don’t hold out much hope for an exciting game in this matchup. Hopefully these old foes can serve up some entertainment, with my gut leaning to a narrow Cowboys victory.

Miami Dolphins (5-6) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The visit of Miami to Green Bay’s Lambeau Field should be the closest matchup of the Thanksgiving slate.

The Dolphins had a tough start to their 2024 season with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing four games after suffering concussion in week two. Tua has suffered a number of concussions in his college and pro careers, and after the latest instance there were many in the sport who questioned whether he should consider his future in the game. Since his return to the lineup, Miami’s offence has returned to competency, if not the dazzling unit that took the league by storm in the first halves of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

In wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins have a true superstar whose speed is a game changer.
However, Hill has also suffered injury problems with a nagging wrist injury, aggravated by a police traffic stop incident in September, which has impacted his usual high levels of production. Miami’s offence is not just a one man show; alongside Hill at receiver is Jaylen Waddle, and in De’Von Achane, the Fins have one of the league’s most electric running backs.

Green Bay went into the 2024 season as one of the contenders in the NFC, but it has been far from plain sailing for the Packers. Green Bay have been impacted by fitness issues to their rising star QB, Jordan Love. When fit and on form, Love can take over a game with his ability to push the ball down field and into tight windows for his young wide receiver core. His ultra-aggressive approach has however meant he equalled his total interceptions total (11) for the whole of the 2023 season in just eight games this year.

The Packers’ defence was expected to be amongst the league’s elite and whilst they haven’t lived up to this billing so far, they have steadily improved throughout the year.

In tight end Tucker Kraft, Green Bay have unlocked a dangerous offensive weapon that offers a potent red zone threat.
I’m hopeful of a high scoring game to see out Thanksgiving night, which I believe the Packers will sneak victory by a single field goal.