IoD: Business Confidence Falls Further In September

The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy continued to fall in September to -38, from -12 in August 2024. This is the lowest result that the Index has registered since December 2022 (-58).

Business leader confidence in their own organisations also fell from to +23 in August to +15 in September, having already dropped from +36 in July.

Business investment intentions registered their lowest level since September 2020, and their sharpest drop since the outset of the pandemic – dropping from +24 in July, to +10 in August and now -6 in September.

Headcount expectations also continued their downward trend, dropping from +10 in August to +6 in September, having already fallen from +24 in July.

There were more modest changes in the other underlying indicators:

Revenue expectations fell from +28 in August to +27 in September
Cost expectations reduced slightly from +83 to +79
Wage expectation showed little change +56 to +58
Exports expectations were broadly unchanged +8 to +9

Anna Leach

Business confidence and investment expectations both took a further and larger dive in September. IoD members cite ongoing concerns over likely tax increases, the cost of workers’ rights, international competitiveness, broader cost pressures and the general outlook for UK economic growth.

There are a number of policy announcements forthcoming which could help foster a more supportive environment for growth and investment, and underpin an improvement in business confidence. In the next few weeks we expect to see more detail on industrial strategy, the business tax roadmap and a likely update to the fiscal rules to better recognise the contribution of public sector investment to the UK’s asset base. These all have the potential to create a more steady environment for business decision-makers in the UK.

The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index measures the net % positive answers from members of the Institute of Directors to the question ‘How optimistic are you about the wider UK economy over the next 12 months?’ on a five-point scale from ‘very optimistic’ to ‘very pessimistic’.

Full results

661 responses from across the UK, conducted between 13-27 September 2024. 15% ran large businesses (250+ people), 21% medium (50-249), 26% small (10-49 people), 29% micro (2-9 people) and 10% sole trader and self-employed business entities (0-1 people).

How optimistic are you about both the wider UK economy and also your organisation over the next 12 months?

	Very optimistic	Quite optimistic	Neither optimistic nor pessimistic	Quite pessimistic	Very pessimistic	Don't know
Wider UK economy	0.8%	16.2%	28.4%	37.5%	17.1%	0.0%
Your (primary) organisation	3.9%	36.6%	32.8%	21.0%	5.0%	0.6%

Comparing the next 12 months with the last 12 months, what do you believe the outlook for your organisation will be in terms of:

	Much higher	Somewhat higher	No Change	Somewhat lower	Much lower	Don’t know	N/A
Business investment	1.7%	24.4%	39.9%	20.9%	10.9%	0.6%	1.7%
Costs	15.1%	67.6%	11.2%	3.9%	0.3%	1.1%	0.8%
Exports	2.0%	14.5%	29.3%	5.7%	1.7%	1.1%	45.7%
Headcount	0.8%	27.4%	47.7%	18.6%	3.6%	0.8%	1.2%
Revenue	4.1%	45.1%	25.7%	18.3%	4.2%	1.2%	1.4%